Business News: Business School Essays, For a Fee


Business School Essays, For a Fee

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 08:41 AM PST

The Best U.S. Business Schools

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:05 AM PST

The Best International B-Schools

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:05 AM PST

A Website for the World's Materialists

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:00 PM PST

Google Investigated by EU Over Ads, Search

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 03:41 AM PST

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By Aoife White

(Updates with comments from analyst, Google starting in fourth paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc. is being probed by European Union antitrust regulators for allegedly discriminating against competing services in its search results and for stopping some websites accepting rival ads.

The European Commission will check whether Google “imposes exclusivity obligations on advertising partners, preventing them from placing certain types of competing ads on their websites, as well as on computer and software vendors, with the aim of shutting out competing search tools,” it said in an e-mailed statement today.

Microsoft Corp. service Ciao from Bing, U.K. price- comparison site Foundem, and French legal search engine Ejustice.fr and Microsoft Corp. service Ciao from Bing filed an antitrust complaint against Google in February. The antitrust probe adds to separate criticism from French, German and British data protection regulators over Google’s StreetView service that collects data from private homes.

“Given the dominance of Google in the European search market this doesn’t come a huge surprise,” said Sam Hart, a media analyst at Charles Stanley in London. He said remedies “often end up being relatively insignificant in terms of market position” and are “incredibly unlikely” to alter the company’s market position.

Antitrust regulators have power to impose fines of up to 10 percent of revenue for monopoly abuses. The EU’s highest ever penalty of 1.06 billion ($1.38 billion) was against Intel Corp. last year.

Biggest Search Engine

Google, owner of the world’s biggest search engine, said in an e-mailed statement it “worked hard to do the right thing by our users and our industry” by marking ads clearly and enabling users and advertisers to move data to other services.

“There’s always going to be room for improvement and so we’ll be working with the commission to address any concerns,” Google, based in Mountain View, California said.

The commission said it will also investigate whether Google abused its dominant position by promoting its own services over rival price-comparison sites.

Google is “stifling innovation,” Foundem said in an e- mailed statement. It “should not be allowed to discriminate in favor of its own services” and should clearly label its own services in search results, the U.K. shopping-search site said.

On Sept. 25, the commission said it had closed investigations into Apple Inc.’s practices after it relaxed restrictions on the development tools for iPhone applications and introduced cross-border iPhone warranty repair services within the EU region.

--With assistance from Matthew Campbell in Paris. Editors: Peter Chapman, Anthony Aarons

To contact the reporter on this story: Aoife White in Brussels at awhite62@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anthony Aarons at aaarons@bloomberg.net.

Many Key Pieces in Tax-Cut Extension Puzzle

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 09:18 PM PST

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By Ryan J. Donmoyer

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans plan to kick-start negotiations today at the White House over a possible extension of Bush-era tax cuts that are set to expire Dec. 31.

They will have to confront six areas of dispute dealing with taxes as well as issues such as renewing federal subsidies for extended jobless benefits that run out today. Some of the tax elements are subject to budget-balancing rules, which require offsetting tax increases or spending cuts to renew. Others must be approved by a two-thirds majority to fund with deficits. Still others weren’t enacted under President George W. Bush or already have expired.

The Tax Coalition, a Washington group that includes anti- tax organizations such as Americans for Tax Reform and business trade associations such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, warned lawmakers yesterday that a delay in extending the Bush-era tax cuts would hurt the economic recovery.

“It’s going to muck up economic decisions” and cause widespread selling of stocks as investors seek lower capital- gains tax rates before year-end, said Mark Bloomfield, president of the American Council for Capital Formation, a Washington group that advocates for lower taxes on investments. Consumers and investors “will be frozen because they don’t know what the government’s going to do.”

Target: Highest Bracket

Groups including the AFL-CIO labor union back only an extension of the middle-class tax cut. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka this month said it is “absolutely insane” to preserve lower tax rates at the top.

“We need to focus on creating jobs by giving tax breaks only to middle-class families,” Trumka said earlier this month. “Millionaires and Wall Street already had their party, which tanked our economy and left Main Street stuck paying the bill.”

Following are the six elements, their revenue implications and a description of where Obama and lawmakers stand.

The fight between Obama and congressional Republicans centers on whether to cap an extension of lower tax rates and higher credits adopted in 2001 for single taxpayers who earn more than $200,000 a year and couples earning more than $250,000. Obama supports the cap; Republicans and some Democrats don’t.

The 2001 law carved a new 10 percent bracket from the 15 percent rate and reduced other marginal rates to 25, 28, 33 and 35 percent. In 2011, the 10 percent rate is scheduled to be absorbed into the 15 percent rate, and the other brackets will rise to 28, 31, 36 and 39.6 percent, respectively.

Credits, Subsidies

Lawmakers agree on preserving the 10, 15, 25 and 28 percent brackets for taxpayers earning less than $250,000, which requires an act of Congress. The government would forgo $66 billion in revenue in 2011 and $1.18 trillion across a decade by doing so. Budget rules allow these cuts to be financed with deficits.

There’s also no dispute over preserving provisions such as a $1,000 child credit, relief from the so-called marriage penalty and subsidies for education, adoption and child care. Those provisions are permitted to add another $24 billion to the deficit in 2011 and $746.3 billion over 10 years.

Republicans support the extension of lower rates in the top brackets, along with abolishment of provisions that phase out deductions and personal exemptions for high wage earners. Under current law, Congress would have to raise taxes or cut spending elsewhere in the budget by about $21.3 billion for 2011 and $573 billion over the next decade to retain the 33 and 35 percent tax brackets. Alternatively, lawmakers can waive the budget law by declaring an emergency, which would require 60 votes in the Senate.

Alternative Minimum Tax

For married couples, the 33 percent rate currently applies to taxable income between $209,250 and $373,650, after which the top rate takes effect. If a couple had about $50,000 in deductions, for example, they’d have to earn about $425,000 a year to pay the top rates. Many would pay the alternative minimum tax instead.

While Obama and Congress clash over taxes for 2011, they are under pressure to act by Dec. 31 to roll back a $66 billion tax increase already on the books for 2010 because of the alternative minimum tax. The levy was created in 1969 to prevent 155 wealthy Americans from avoiding tax by claiming extensive deductions, credits and exemptions.

It replaces common deductions such as those for medical expenses and state and local taxes with a flat exemption. Amounts that exceed the exemption are taxed at a 26 percent or 28 percent rate, depending on the amount of income. Taxpayers who may owe the AMT must calculate their liability under both systems and pay the higher amount.

Unintended Consequence

Because the AMT wasn’t indexed for inflation, over time it has come to affect Americans with more modest incomes, many of whom are surprised to find they owe it. Congress has spared these taxpayers with a series of annual “patches” that increase the flat exemption amount to account for inflation.

Lawmakers said Nov. 9 they are drafting legislation to set the 2010 exemptions at $72,450 for married taxpayers filing jointly and $47,450 for single taxpayers. The exemptions currently are $45,000 and $33,750.

If nothing is done, it would result in an average tax increase of $3,000 to $5,000 in 2010 for about 25 million households, most of whom have never paid the AMT, according to H&R Block Inc., the largest U.S. tax-preparation firm.

A one-year patch would cost the government about $66 billion in foregone revenue and can be financed with deficits under budget rules.

Capital Gains, Dividends

The 2003 tax law reduced taxes on most long-term capital gains to 15 percent from 20 percent. It also set a 15 percent rate for many dividends that had been taxed as ordinary income at an individual’s top marginal rate. Those previous rates are slated to be reinstated in 2011 unless Congress acts, although assets held longer than five years would qualify for an 18 percent capital-gains tax rate.

Obama proposes preserving the 15 percent rates on both for individuals earning less than $200,000 and joint filers earning less than $250,000. He supports allowing the capital gains rate to revert to 20 percent for high earners. He also would cap the dividend tax rate at 20 percent rather than allowing dividends to be taxed as ordinary income. Budget rules don’t provide for the 20 percent rate for dividends to be financed with deficits, so Obama or lawmakers would have to waive them or find an estimated $10 billion elsewhere in the budget for 2011, or $100 billion over 10 years.

Obama won enactment of higher taxes on investment income as part of the health-care law he signed in March. In 2013, a 3.8 percent Medicare tax will apply for the first time to investment income claimed by high-income taxpayers.

Business Tax Breaks

Republicans are seeking to keep the 15 percent rates in place for high-income taxpayers. That would require budget offsets of about $314.6 billion over 10 years or a waiver of the rules.

Congress also is struggling to renew dozens of expired tax breaks, about 80 percent of which benefit businesses. They include a research and experimentation credit popular with such companies as Dow Chemical Co. and Harley-Davidson Inc.

Another break is tax deferral on profits that companies including General Electric Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. earn from financing equipment sales or issuing credit cards overseas. Versions of the legislation also would extend the Build America Bonds program used by states and cities to finance things such as road building and repairs.

State, Local Taxes

A handful of tax breaks for individuals also are popular with lawmakers, the biggest being a deduction for state and local sales taxes.

Like the AMT patch, most of these tax breaks expired at the end of 2009, and lawmakers have been under pressure to renew them since. They’ve been unable to agree because Republicans, and a few Democrats, object to the revenue-raising proposals added to comply with budget rules, the largest of which calls for higher taxes on so-called carried interest.

Carried interest is the compensatory share of profits earned by managers of investment partnerships. It can qualify for lower capital gains rates even as the share is tied to the manager’s labor rather than a capital investment. Democrats have framed the proposal as ending a loophole exploited by executives at private-equity firms and passed legislation taxing carried interest at the higher rates that apply to wages.

Carried-Interest Fight

Republicans have opposed the proposal with the help of the real estate and venture-capital industries. They argue that the change is so sweeping it would also raise taxes on family partnerships. They’ve also opposed other revenue offsets in the bill, including higher levies on oil and gas companies.

Dropping the carried interest provision would provoke outrage among Democrats who still control the House during the lame-duck session.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus of Montana said this month that he’s committed to keeping the carried interest provision in the measure. Analysts say that would make it tough to find 60 votes in the Senate in support of dropping the proposal.

The funding puzzle is further complicated by the fact that a one-year extension would renew the breaks for 2010 only. Extending them through 2011 would more than double the cost.

Estate, Gift Taxes

There’s no federal estate tax for 2010 because of a phase- out schedule established by the 2001 law; in its place is a complicated capital gains tax.

The expiration is sandwiched between two sets of rules for 2009 and 2011, which has perplexed lawyers, accountants and wealthy families.

In 2009, individuals had a $3.5 million tax-free allowance they could distribute to heirs; couples had a $7 million exemption. Amounts beyond those were subject to a top 45 percent tax rate. Next year, the estate tax is slated to return, with a higher top rate of 55 percent and a lower tax-free allowance of $1 million per individual. That would generate $34.4 billion in revenue for 2011, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Obama favors, and the House of Representatives has passed, permanently reinstating the 2009 rates and allowances.

Extending the 2009 parameters through 2011 requires no offsets.

Any long-term change that generates less revenue than a 55 percent rate and a $1 million exemption would require budget- balancing measures. A 45 percent rate in 2011 would generate $18.1 billion in revenue, according to the CRS.

Most Republicans favor repealing the estate tax, which would require $666.1 billion in revenue offsets over the next decade under the budget rules.

Phase-In Proposal

More recently, Republicans such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky have endorsed an approach advanced by Senators Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican, and Blanche Lincoln, an Arkansas Democrat, to phase in a $5 million tax-free allowance and set the top rate at 35 percent. That would require up to $315 billion in budget offsets or a waiver.

No proposal yet has mustered the 60 votes needed to clear procedural hurdles in the Senate and pass.

The last major element of the debate involves Obama’s tax policies rather than those of Bush. The 2009 stimulus bill created a new Making Work Pay tax credit that increased the paychecks of married couples by up to $800 in 2009 and 2010. That credit expires Dec. 31, along with the Bush-era tax cuts, and would cost about $61.8 billion a year to extend. It would require budget offsets. The stimulus measure also expanded refundable credits for the working poor.

Illinois Senator Richard Durbin, the No. 2 ranking Democrat, said on Nov. 28 that Democrats would insist on an extension of Obama’s policies during negotiations. He also said Democrats would tie extension of federal subsidies for extended unemployment benefits to the tax discussion.

--Editors: Jodi Schneider, Robin Meszoly

To contact the reporter on this story: Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington at rdonmoyer@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

Durbin: Debate to Go Beyond Bush Tax Cuts

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 10:05 AM PST

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By Joshua Zumbrun

(Corrects Sen. Dorgan’s state in 11th paragraph in story appearing on Nov. 28.)

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the senate’s No. 2 Democrat, said negotiations over extending the Bush-era tax cuts also will include prolonging emergency unemployment benefits and other tax credits.

“I want to put a couple other things on the table,” Durbin said today on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We do have unemployment running out,” he said, and “I also want to make sure the earned-income tax credit, the childcare tax credit, and the ‘Making Work Pay’ tax credit are part” of the discussion.

At issue are tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 that are set to expire Dec. 31. Obama is scheduled to meet with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders Nov. 30 at the White House to discuss the legislative agenda.

Additionally, emergency jobless benefits that kick in after the initial 26-weeks of payments end will expire at the end of this month. Without congressional action, about 2 million Americans will lose the federally funded benefits, according to a Labor Department estimate.

Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, the chamber’s second-ranking Republican, said there is “an opportunity for us to sit down and negotiate a resolution to this that’s good for the economy.” Kyl also repeated a key sticking point for Republicans: “We don’t believe taxes should be increased on anyone.”

Obama has argued the country can’t afford indefinitely extending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, defined by the president as individuals making more than $200,000 and couples earning more than $250,000.

Obama on Tax Cuts

“I believe it is a mistake for us to borrow $700 billion to make tax cuts permanent for millionaires and billionaires,” Obama told reporters Nov. 14. “It won’t significantly boost the economy and it’s hugely expensive, so we can’t afford it.”

Republicans, who won a majority of House seats in the Nov. 2 elections and narrowed the Democratic margin in the Senate, are pushing to permanently extend all the current tax rates. While Obama has said he wants to permanently extend just the tax cuts on earnings up to $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for households -- about 97 percent of all taxpayers, according to the Internal Revenue Service -- he has indicated he’s open to negotiations on achieving that goal.

“We should be focusing on what it takes to move this economy forward,” Durbin said. “We should not be worried about the discomfort of the wealthy.”

Expiring Legislation

Unless Congress acts, marginal rates will increase for all income-tax payers. Tax credits benefiting families will be cut in half. The so-called married penalty that forces some couples to pay more than if they were single will be reinstated. Rates will rise on most dividends and capital gains, and a levy on estates valued over $1 million will be resurrected.

“What’s likely to happen is there will be an extension of the tax cuts for everybody for a period of time,” Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, a Democrat who is retiring, said in an interview today on CNN’s “State of the Union” program.

Extending only the current rates for individuals earning less than $200,000 and couples making under $250,000 would add more than $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Sustaining tax cuts for those with higher incomes would add an additional $700 billion to the debt over the next decade, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said.

An across-the-board extension of all Bush-era tax policies would cost the government about $5 trillion in foregone revenue and interest cost on the debt, the Congressional Research Service estimated last month.

--With assistance from Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington. Editors: Carlos Torres, Daniel Enoch

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

India Revives an Old Plan for New Growth

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 08:00 AM PST

Vitamin D, Calcium Supplements Are Unnecessary, IOM Study Finds

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:46 AM PST

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By Allison Connolly

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Vitamin D and calcium supplements are unnecessary and may even be harmful, according to a study commissioned by the U.S. and Canadian governments.

While vitamin D and calcium are important for bone health, Americans and Canadians get enough of both, an expert committee commissioned by the Institute of Medicine found. The committee reviewed more than 1,000 studies and comments from scientists.

“As North Americans take more supplements and eat more of foods that have been fortified with vitamin D and calcium, it becomes more likely that people consume high amounts of these nutrients,” the committee wrote in the report, posted on the institute’s website.

The committee found most people get enough calcium, except girls aged between 9 and 18. Postmenopausal women taking supplements may be getting too much and increasing their risk for kidney stones, the panel said.

North Americans get enough vitamin D through their daily diet and sunshine, the study found, contradicting tests that have become popular in recent years and aren’t based on “rigorous scientific studies.”

“Confusion has grown among the public about how much vitamin D is necessary,” the report’s authors said.

The Institute of Medicine is an independent, non-profit group based in Washington that advises policy makers and the public. It’s an arm of the National Academy of Sciences.

--Editors: Kristen Hallam, Phil Serafino.

To contact the reporter on this story: Allison Connolly in Frankfurt at aconnolly4@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Phil Serafino at pserafino@bloomberg.net.

Merck Names Kenneth Frazier CEO, Replacing Clark

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:45 AM PST

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By Tom Randall

(Updates with Frazier’s background in second paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Merck & Co., the second-biggest U.S. drugmaker, named Kenneth C. Frazier as chief executive officer effective Jan. 1, succeeding Richard T. Clark, who will continue as chairman of the board.

Frazier, 55, has been president since April, the Whitehouse Station, New Jersey-based company said in a statement. He was executive vice president and president of global human health from 2007 to 2010, after joining the company in 1992 as vice president and general counsel.

Clark, 64, was named CEO in 2005 and oversaw the $49 billion 2009 acquisition of Schering-Plough Corp. Merck is eliminating 15,000 jobs and closing facilities by 2012 to save $3.5 billion by 2012. Clark, who joined Merck in 1972 as a quality control inspector, will advise Frazier during the transition, the company said.

Frazier said he is “looking ahead to a period of dramatic industry change,” according to the statement. “For Merck to be a leader in the future, we must continue to adjust our operating model and achieve a level of transformation never before seen in our industry.”

--Editor: Reg Gale.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Randall in New York at trandall6@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reg Gale at rgale5@bloomberg.net.

Euro, Italian Bonds Drop on Contagion Concern as Futures Fall

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:30 AM PST

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By Stephen Kirkland

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The euro weakened for a third day and Italian and Spanish bond yields rose compared with German debt on concern the region’s crisis is worsening. U.S. index futures declined while European stocks fluctuated.

The euro depreciated 0.9 percent against the dollar at 7:25 a.m. in New York. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10- year Italian debt instead of benchmark German bunds widened to more than 200 basis points for the first time since the euro’s debut in 1999. The difference in the cost of insuring subordinated and senior European financial-company bonds rose to the most since May 2009. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.6 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.1 percent.

Government securities and the euro are being dragged down by concern Portugal and Spain may suffer the fate of Ireland, which had to ask for an 85 billion-euro ($111 billion) rescue package to help bail out its banks. A report today may show real-estate prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in September at the slowest pace in eight months, indicating the latest slump in sales is destabilizing housing.

“Euro-area contagion is becoming fairly indiscriminate,” Valentin Marinov, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London, wrote in a report today. “There is so far little indication that euro-area politicians will act quickly and forcefully enough to prevent further spread widening. We cannot exclude more euro selling.”

Euro, Dollar

The euro weakened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers, dropping as much as 1.1 percent to $1.2980, the lowest level since Sept. 16. It fell 1.3 percent to 109.13 yen. The Dollar Index advanced a third day, gaining 0.4 percent to 81.133 after reaching 81.346, the highest level since Sept. 20.

The difference in yield between Italian 10-year bonds and German bunds widened to as much as 212 basis points, the most since 1996. The Spanish-German yield spread rose to 281 basis points and the yield premium for Belgian 10-year bonds reached 131 basis points, the most since January 2009.

Credit-default swaps insuring Italian government bonds rose seven basis points to 253, contracts on Spain increased nine basis points to 361 and Portugal climbed 11.5 basis points to 551, all record highs, according to CMA, a data provider.

The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers rose 8 basis points to a 2 1/2-month high of 173, while an index of subordinated notes climbed 23.5 basis points to 318. The gap between the two widened 15.5 to 145 on expectations subordinated bondholders will be forced to share the cost of bailing out lenders.

European Stocks

The drop in European shares brought this month’s decline in the Stoxx 600 to 1.6 percent, the worst month since May. Hochtief AG rose 3.5 percent after Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA won approval from Germany’s financial regulator for its 2.7 billion-euro ($3.5 billion) bid for the German construction company. Alstom SA gained 3.3 percent as Deutsche Bank AG raised its recommendation on the world’s third-largest power-equipment maker to “buy.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 0.7 percent to the lowest level since Oct. 5, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.3 percent to a two-month low. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.6 percent, capping its first monthly retreat since June, after Zhong Jiyin of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences wrote in a commentary in China Daily that recent increases in banks’ reserve requirements won’t be enough to reverse excessive liquidity in the system.

The decline in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 may fall for a third day. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of house prices climbed 1 percent from September 2009, the smallest year-over- year gain since February, according to the median forecast of 28 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The figures are due at 9 a.m. New York time. Other reports may show consumer confidence rose and businesses expanded.

Baldor, ABB

Baldor Electric Co. may jump in U.S. trading after ABB Ltd., the Swiss maker of factory robots and electrical equipment, agreed to buy the company for about $3.1 billion in cash to expand in the North American market for industrial motors and drives.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1,373.70 an ounce. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities fell 0.1 percent and oil sank 0.4 percent to $85.42 a barrel.

--With assistance from Paul Armstrong, Paul Dobson, David Merritt, Abigail Moses, Michael Patterson and Dan Weeks in London. Editors: Stephen Kirkland, Justin Carrigan

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Sillitoe in London at psillitoe@bloomberg.net

Coca-Cola CEO Says More Than One Climate Accord Needed

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:16 AM PST

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By Kim Chipman

(Adds India minister, Temple professor comments from fifth paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Coca-Cola Co. Chief Executive Officer Muhtar Kent said multiple international accords, not a single treaty, are needed to fight climate change.

“I don’t think one treaty can work for the world,” Kent, 58, said in an interview in Cancun, Mexico, where delegates from more than 190 countries are gathered for United Nations-led talks on setting rules to limit global warming.

The world’s largest soft-drink maker is among companies in the Mexican resort lobbying envoys on the shape of an eventual accord that may restrict emissions from burning fossil fuels, channel up to $100 billion to poor nations and protect forests.

A year ago in Copenhagen, delegates failed to draft a treaty, leaving in limbo the 1997 Kyoto accord that mandated cuts in carbon-dioxide emissions until the end of 2012. While envoys aim to replace that agreement with new commitments, UN officials say a treaty is unlikely to be drafted this year.

Comments by India’s environment minister and Kent add strength to suggestions from climate envoys that working for a single binding treaty may not be the best way forward for the negotiations set to end Dec. 10.

“An international agreement is not anywhere on the horizon,” Jairam Ramesh said today in New Delhi. “Action has to be domestic. That’s what the last 15 months has shown.”

Rich, Poor Divide

Since the Copenhagen round of talks concluded with a non- binding agreement, negotiators have been unable to bridge the divide between richer nations bound by the Kyoto treaty and poorer countries led by China and India that reject similar rules for their industrializing economies. Indian and Chinese leaders say their priorities are economic growth and ending poverty.

“We’ve been at it for 18 years on climate change but that’s not unique,” said Duncan Hollis, an associate professor at Temple University’s Beasley School of Law in Philadelphia and editor of the “Oxford Guide to Treaties” to be published next year. “Breaking this up into smaller pieces and trying to knock off one piece at a time is certainly worth trying.”

Momentum is building instead for extending national and regional plans to limit greenhouse gases, from domestic carbon markets to renewable-energy standards, in which utilities are forced to include a fixed percentage of clean energy in the mix they sell to consumers.

Indian Viewpoint

The UN talks in their second day today in Mexico are moving away from a global treaty, Ramesh said. Meetings instead should focus on “domestic actions,” the minister said, adding that India won’t accept limits on growth set by other nations.

While executives from 400 companies including Tesco Plc and Unilever NV released a statement saying they’d work to end deforestation and use of refrigerants that harm the atmosphere, the Coca-Cola executive went further, delving into the politics of treaty-making.

“There can’t be just one framework,” Kent said, adding that “you can’t judge India’s progress with the same metrics as U.S. progress.”

The UN framework needs to become “more flexible” and allow countries to have different timelines for moving ahead with efforts to curb fossil-fuel emissions, Kent said.

Government Incentives

While companies can accomplish much on their own to reduce emissions and protect the environment, only governments can set a price on carbon and provide the incentives needed to spur shifts in energy use, he said.

President Barack Obama failed to win passage in Congress this year of legislation to cap carbon emissions linked to global warming. Prospects for action will grow slimmer next year when Republicans take control of the House of Representatives and expand their minority in the Senate. Dozens of Republican lawmakers elected this month have expressed skepticism about global warming or action to curb it.

--With assistance from Randall Hackley in London and Natalie Obiko Pearson in New Delhi. Editors: Peter Langan, Todd White

To contact the reporter on this story: Kim Chipman in Cancun, Mexico, at kchipman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net

Treasuries Rise as Europe Debt Crisis Spurs Demand for Safety

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:10 AM PST

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By Keith Jenkins and Wes Goodman

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for a third day on speculation Ireland’s funding crisis will spread to Portugal and Spain, increasing demand for the relative safety of U.S. government debt.

U.S. securities also gained as the Federal Reserve prepared to buy $6 billion to $8 billion of notes due from 2014 to 2016 today. The central bank scooped up $9.4 billion of debt yesterday, part of its plan to boost growth.

“Persistent concern surrounding the euro-zone debt crisis is supporting the Treasury market,” said Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds TSB Corporate Bank in London. “The size of the Fed’s bond-purchase program adds to the support, as does the asset-allocation shift away from euro-denominated debt.”

Benchmark 10-year yields declined four basis points to 2.78 percent as of 6:38 a.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security maturing in November 2020 advanced 12/32, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 20/32.

Ireland on Nov. 28 became the second country to tap European assistance, following Greece. The rescue package is worth 85 billion euros ($112 billion).

The cost of insuring the debt of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland surged to records today. Contracts on Italy rose 14 basis points to 260, Spain increased 13.5 basis points to 365.5 and Portugal was 17.5 higher at 557 and Ireland was up 11 at 615. Swaps on Belgium rose 10 basis points to a record 193 and Greece was up 14 basis points at 983.

European Default Risk

The swaps protect debt against default, and traders use them to speculate on credit quality. An increase suggests deteriorating perceptions of creditworthiness and a drop shows improvement. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the securities if a borrower fails to meet its debt agreements.

It may take years to bring down Europe’s debt levels, said Anthony Crescenzi, a strategist at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund.

The Irish bailout doesn’t solve the problem of reducing the nation’s debt, said Crescenzi, who is based at Pimco’s main office in Newport Beach, California.

“The average interest rate is said to be about 5.8 percent,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness With Margaret Brennan” yesterday. “Can we expect Ireland’s economy to grow 5.8 percent in years ahead? Probably not. The debt will grow faster.”

Yield Outlook

Treasuries are still heading for their biggest monthly loss since March amid signs the U.S. economy is improving.

The yield difference between two- and 10-year notes may narrow as the Fed buys securities this week, according to BNP Paribas SA.

“This week, there are four remaining Fed buybacks, two today, no coupon auctions and month-end extension buying flows,” analysts at the bank, including Cyril Beuzit, head of interest-rate strategy in London, wrote in an e-mailed report today. “All of these factors should be supportive of Treasuries, and the 2s-10s curve should flatten in such a scenario.”

The yield difference between the two- and 10-year notes was 229 basis points today. That’s the least since Nov. 12, according to Bloomberg generic data.

“We stay bullish on Treasuries, with our year-end forecast being 2.60 percent for the 10-year note,” the analysts wrote.

Money Managers

Treasuries also gained on speculation money managers will add to their holdings to match changes in benchmark bond indexes at the end of the month, analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Dean Maki at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York wrote in a report yesterday. The company is another primary dealer.

The indexes will incorporate the two-, five- and seven-year notes the government sold this month.

U.S. government securities handed investors a 0.8 percent loss this month as of yesterday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show, as the economy improved. German bonds fell 0.9 percent, while Ireland’s government securities plunged 11 percent. Investors in Japan’s sovereign debt market, the biggest in the world, lost 1.1 percent, the indexes show.

Investors should stay away from Treasuries even as the Fed buys them under its program known as quantitative easing, said Roger Bridges at Tyndall Investment Management Ltd. in Sydney.

‘Avoid Like the Plague’

“I’d avoid them like the plague if you can,” said Bridges, who oversees the equivalent of $11.5 billion as head of debt at the unit of Australia’s largest insurer. “The economy’s doing quite well. It makes you ask, was the QE needed?”

Treasuries will gain for the rest of 2010 and decline in 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities companies, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. The 10-year yield will be 2.62 percent on Dec. 31 and 3.23 percent at the end of next year, the survey shows.

Industry reports today will show consumer confidence rose while gains in real-estate prices slowed, Bloomberg News surveys of economists show.

The Labor Department may say on Dec. 3 that American employers added jobs for a second month in November while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent, according to the surveys.

“Elevated” unemployment and “subdued” inflation helped spur the Fed to arrange its $600 billion stimulus program, the central bank said in a Nov. 3 statement.

The difference between yields on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices over the life of the securities, widened to 2.14 percentage points from this year’s low of 1.47 percentage points in August. The five-year average is 2.09 percentage points.

--With assistance from Tim Catts in New York and Abigail Moses in London. Editors: Keith Campbell, Peter Branton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net.

European Stocks Increase; Hochtief Gains as Remy Cointreau Falls

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 04:06 AM PST

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By Julie Cruz

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fluctuated near an eight-week low as the region’s debt crisis intensified and investors awaited reports on house prices and confidence in the world’s largest economy. Asian shares and U.S. futures fell.

BNP Paribas SA led bank stocks lower, falling for an eighth day as Italian and Spanish government bonds slumped. Nestle SA lost 1.4 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG cut its rating on the stock for the first time in almost six years. Hochtief AG gained 2.7 percent after Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA won approval for its 2.7 billion-euro ($3.5 billion) bid for the German construction company.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent to 262.13 at 1:02 p.m. in London, heading for a 1.4 percent decline in November, the measure’s first monthly drop since August. The gauge sank yesterday as the bailout of Ireland failed to reassure investors that the region will contain its sovereign-debt crisis. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.5 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.8 percent.

“U.S. housing prices and consumer confidence were two main themes in 2010, so it’s very important to see what signs those indicators will give to the market,” Andreas Lipkow, an equity trader at MWB Fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG in Frankfurt, said. “We will see sideways trading as nothing has the power to push the market up in the next few weeks.”

U.S. House Prices

A report today may show real-estate prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in September at the slowest pace in seven months as the slump in sales continued to destabilize house prices.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of house prices climbed 1 percent from September 2009, the smallest year-over-year gain since February, when the market began to recover following a three-year drop, according to the median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figures are due at 9 a.m. New York time. Other reports may show consumer confidence rose and businesses expanded.

Italian and Spanish government bonds fell, driving the extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of German bunds higher, as Europe’s debt crisis intensified.

Spreading Crisis

The drop pushed the yield spread between 10-year Italian securities and similar-maturity German debt to more than 2 percentage points for the first time since 1997. Spanish bonds fell yesterday by the most since the start of the euro era as a bailout for Ireland failed to assuage speculation that the debt crisis will spread. The cost of insuring the debts of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland surged to records and the euro slid.

In Germany, unemployment fell for a 17th month in November as business optimism improved, underscoring the gulf between Europe’s biggest economy and peripheral nations struggling to cut their debt, a report showed today.

The number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 3.14 million, the lowest since December 1992, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decrease of 20,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

In the U.K., consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to a four-month low in November as looming public-spending cuts dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, a report by GfK NOP Ltd. showed.

Banks Drop

BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, dropped 3.2 percent to 45.66 euros for the longest falling streak since January 2008. Dexia SA, the lender that received a 6 billion-euro bailout during the credit crisis, slid 3.2 percent to 2.84 euros. Societe Generale SA sank 3.7 percent to 35.69 euros. ING Groep NV, the largest Dutch financial-services company, lost 3.2 percent to 6.78 euros.

Deutsche Postbank AG retreated 1.9 percent to 21.95 euros, the seventh day of declines for the longest falling streak since March 2007. The German lender being acquired by Deutsche Bank AG is close to a deal to sell its Indian operations for about 11 billion rupees ($239.7 million), according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

Nestle, the world’s largest food company, fell 1.4 percent to 55 francs. The recommendation on the shares was cut at Credit Suisse after the stock’s outperformance versus peers caused the brokerage to reassess its opinion.

The recommendation was lowered to “neutral” from “outperform,” where it had been since January 2005. The shares trade at 17 times profit, a premium to peers, compared with a price-earnings ratio of 12 in 2005, when they were at a discount to rivals, Credit Suisse analyst Alex Molloy wrote in a report.

Ageas, Remy

Ageas slid 5.8 percent to 1.71 euros, declining for an eighth day, its longest losing streak in six months. The insurer formerly known as Fortis was cut to “hold” from “buy” at Rabo Securities.

Remy Cointreau SA plunged 2.8 percent to 50.65 euros after France’s second-biggest distiller said first-half profit tumbled on a writedown of its Metaxa brand due to slumping sales in Greece.

Net income slid 65 percent to 14.1 million euros. The company reported a gross impairment of 45 million euros because of Metaxa, a whisky- and wine-based spirit. Sales increased 18 percent to 428.2 million euros, or 11 percent excluding currency shifts and acquisitions.

Hochtief jumped 2.7 percent to 57.43 euros, the biggest advance in almost two weeks. “During its investigation, BaFin requested significant improvements from ACS,” Germany’s financial regulator said in a statement yesterday. ACS’s revised offer document submitted yesterday “provided all the required improvements. Therefore BaFin has approved the proposal,” the regulator said.

Madrid-based ACS on Sept. 16 announced an all-stock offer to buy Hochtief, proposing eight of its own shares for every five of the German builder’s.

Alstom SA gained 3.1 percent to 31.90 euros as Deutsche Bank AG raised its recommendation on the world’s third-largest power-equipment maker to “buy.”

Atos Origin SA surged 2.7 percent to 31.57 euros after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rated France’s second-biggest provider of computer services “buy” in new coverage.

--Editors: {Will Hadfield}, {Andrew Rummer}

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Merritt at dmerritt1@bloomberg.net.

ECB Tried to Force Ireland Into Bailout, Minister Says

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 03:53 AM PST

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By Finbarr Flynn

(Updates with details on ECB policy in third paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials tried to force Ireland to seek a bailout earlier this month and European officials are now trying to do the same to Portugal, Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern said.

“Clearly there were people from outside this country who were trying to bounce us in as a sovereign state, into making an application, throwing in the towel before we had even considered it as a government,” he told Irish state broadcaster RTE in an interview today. “And if you notice, they are doing the same with Portugal now.”

Asked about who was pressuring Ireland, he said “quite obviously people from within the ECB.”

The Frankfurt-based central bank’s drive to withdraw emergency stimulus from the euro-region’s 16-nation economy is being complicated by a worsening fiscal crisis across the bloc’s periphery. While Ireland was given a 85 billion-euro ($111 billion) rescue package on Nov. 28, that didn’t stop a bond market selloff that yesterday sparked the biggest slide in Spanish government debt since the euro’s 1999 debut.

The cost of insuring Portugal against default rose 11.5 basis points to a record 551 today, according to CMA prices. Portugal and Germany last week denied a report in the Financial Times Deutschland that Portugal was facing pressure to ask for aid.

‘Incredible Pressure’

ECB officials, who say they are politically independent, told Ireland on a Nov. 12 conference call that it should press for outside help to rescue its banks and contain a debt crisis, according to a person briefed on the discussion.

Speculation of a bailout mounted in the following days, even as the Irish government denied talks were underway. Ahern himself said in an interview aired on Nov. 14 that bailout speculation was “fiction.” That evening, the Finance Ministry said it was in talks.

EU officials “were leaking in the papers that Sunday, quite incredible pressure on this country,” Ahern said today, adding that he won’t stand in the next general election for personal reasons.

An ECB spokesman declined to comment on his remarks.

Ireland’s crisis has forced the ECB to buy government bonds and pump money into its banking system. Irish domestic lenders increased their reliance on ECB funding by 3.3 percent in October and the central bank today purchased more Irish bonds, according to two people familiar with the transaction.

The bailout has sparked a wave of domestic criticism accusing Prime Minister Brian Cowen of giving up the country’s sovereignty for punitive terms. More than 50,000 people took to the streets of Dublin on Nov. 27, a day before the government agreed an average interest rate of 5.8 percent for the loans from the EU and IMF.

“The government was cleaned out in the negotiations,” said Michael Noonan, finance spokesman for Fine Gael, the largest opposition party. “The interest rate of 5.8 percent is far too high and verges on the unaffordable.”

--Editors: John Fraher, Alan Crawford

To contact the reporter on this story: Finbarr Flynn in Dublin at fflynn3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net

Business News: Shoppers, Start Your Engines


Shoppers, Start Your Engines

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:00 PM PST

Weekend Sales Climb 6.4% on Deals

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:07 AM PST

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By Lauren Coleman-Lochner and Yi Tian

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The average shopper in the U.S. spent 6.4 percent more over Thanksgiving weekend than last year as more shoppers picked up jewelry and toys, heartened by the economic rebound.

About 212 million shoppers went to stores and websites over the holiday weekend, on average spending $365.34, the National Retail Federation said yesterday. The proportion of sales online rose to more than one-third of the total, according to the Washington-based trade group.

Retailers lured people into stores with promotions like Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s $5 Barbie and J.C. Penney Co.’s $10 diamond-accented earrings. Customers such as Barb Capa, shopping at Saks Inc.’s flagship store yesterday in New York, said they’re ready to buy again as their fortunes improve.

“I just feel like spending more because of an increase in my salary,” the 22-year-old nurse from New York said. In 2009 Capa spent $1,000 during the holiday season. This year she is ready to “splurge” and drop five times as much on designer bags, clothes and shoes.

U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving weekend totaled about $45 billion, the NRF said, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. More people are scouring for deals earlier, with the number of customers shopping on Thanksgiving Day more than doubling over the past five years, the group said.

“Consumers are more comfortable spending again, and that trend has held up,” Maggie Taylor, a vice president at Moody’s Investors Service in New York, said yesterday. “I don’t think people are as worried about losing their jobs anymore.”

On Black Friday itself, so named because that’s when many retailers become profitable, traffic rose 2.2 percent, ShopperTrak said on Nov. 27. The Chicago-based consulting firm said sales rose 0.3 percent to $10.7 billion.

Rebounding Sentiment

The increase follows improvements in consumer sentiment. Confidence among U.S. consumers increased more than forecast in November to the highest level in five months, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.

More shoppers surveyed said they visited department stores this year, and fewer went to discounters as shoppers put more emphasis on service and selection, Ellen Davis, an NRF spokeswoman, said on a conference call yesterday. Men outspent women as they shopped for electronics and other big-ticket items, often for themselves, Davis said.

The NRF predicts a gain of 2.3 percent to $447.1 billion this holiday period after a rise of 0.4 percent last year and a 3.9 percent drop in 2008. The group may revise its forecast up if the trends of the past weekend continue, Davis said. Nevertheless, she cautioned that a strong start isn’t always indicative of the season -- the NRF recorded an increase in its 2008 Black Friday survey, yet saw overall holiday sales decline that year.

First-Time Shopper

Andy Bogats, a 38-year-old father of five, braved the crowds and rain on the morning of Black Friday for the first time in his life. He bought two 32-inch flat-screen Emerson televisions for $198 apiece at a Wal-Mart location outside Pittsburgh.

“We targeted these TVs, and were fortunate to get them,” said Bogats, a former mortgage broker who now works in the construction industry. “Things are getting better.” So much so, that he and his wife may splurge on each other this year. “We didn’t do that last year,” he said.

While some shoppers plan to spend more this season, others are trimming their budgets.

Shannon Parker, 39, and her sister-in-law Tracy Knapp, 42, have made a Black Friday shopping marathon an annual tradition. This year was no exception. The 12-hour shopathon took them from Wal-Mart, Target Corp. and Best Buy Co. to Kohl’s Corp. and Bon Ton Stores Inc. Along the way, they snagged everything from a TV to iPod docking stations to Christmas Eve pajamas for their kids.

Better Budgeting?

There was one difference, however. Parker, a school administrator from Baltimore, put all of her purchases on prepaid credit cards to avoid busting her budget.

“I’m still swiping the plastic, but it’s already paid for,” said Parker, who was visiting her sister-in-law in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

Some Americans plan to wait for the deals to improve. One is Debbie Schwig, who declined to buy anything when she visited Apple Inc.’s Fifth Avenue store in Manhattan on Nov. 27 with her husband and dog.

“We’re here to check things out today,” said the 47-year- old nurse from Hoboken, New Jersey. “We’ll wait until vendors get more desperate.”

Avoiding Bedlam

Others opted to avoid the bedlam of Black Friday altogether. Bridget Hujsa, a teacher from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, is buying nearly all of her gifts online at Target and Gap Inc.’s Old Navy, where she found discounts on clothes and baby toys for her 7-month-old son.

“I prefer online,” she said. “You don’t have to drive and deal with the crowds.”

She may get her chance today by joining in on Cyber Monday, known as the kickoff for the online holiday shopping season. More than 106 million people are projected to surf the Internet for deals, according to the NRF. Best Buy, for example, began a two-day Cyber Monday sale yesterday with discounts on 32-inch LCD televisions and Dell Inc. laptops.

--With assistance from Matthew Boyle, Mina Kawai and Ian Thomson in New York, Burt Helm in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Matt Townsend in Pittsburgh. Editors: Julie Alnwick, Robin Ajello

To contact the reporters on this story: Lauren Coleman-Lochner in New York at llochner@bloomberg.net; Yi Tian in New York at ytian8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robin Ajello at rajello@bloomberg.net

Holiday Sweets for Those Who Tweet

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:00 PM PST

Next Home Buyers: Ozzie & Harriet

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:10 PM PST

The Most Expensive Suburbs

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:38 AM PST

A Good Day for Obama's Auto Bankers

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:00 PM PST

A Stock Windfall for GM's Creditors

Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:00 PM PST

Why the Estate Tax Debate Just Won't Die

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:19 PM PST

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By Ryan J. Donmoyer

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ending the uncertainty over extending Bush-era tax cuts may rest on resolving a decade-long debate over death and taxes.

The federal levy on estates is set to increase the most of all as tax cuts expire Jan. 1, jumping from zero to 55 percent for fortunes worth more than $1 million at death. President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress barely mention it as they spar with Republicans over whether to keep income-tax reductions for top earners.

A new tax on multimillion-dollar estates may emerge as the final hurdle to a deal that preserves most or all of former President George W. Bush’s tax cuts, analysts said. Congress has unsuccessfully sought at least a half-dozen times to resolve the issue since 2000, including an abandoned effort last December to prevent the estate tax’s expiration.

“The history on the estate tax is every time there’s almost an agreement someone leaves the table in the belief they’ll get a better deal next time,” said Clinton Stretch, a managing principal at the Washington consulting firm Deloitte Tax LLP.

With Obama planning to meet with bipartisan congressional leaders at the White House tomorrow, three main factions have formed in the Senate, none of which has the 60 votes needed to advance an estate-tax proposal. One includes Republicans such as South Carolina’s Jim DeMint who favor permanent repeal. Another is led by Democrats including Majority Leader Harry Reid who support a top rate of 45 percent that would apply after a $3.5 million tax-free allowance.

Moral Issue

A third faction, led by Arizona Republican Jon Kyl and Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln and embraced by Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, backs setting the top rate at 35 percent after a $5 million exemption.

Forging an agreement has proven more complicated than splitting the difference on the numbers because this has been cast as a moral issue, said Lee Farris, senior organizer on estate-tax policy for United for a Fair Economy, a Boston-based group that advocates reinstating the estate tax.

Opponents criticize the estate tax as an unfair levy that destroys family businesses while proponents of the tax, who include billionaires Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, view it as essential to preserving meritocracy in U.S. society. That argument has gained steam this past year with the deaths of at least five U.S. billionaires, including New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner.

“People are more dug in on their estate-tax positions on both sides than they are on the other positions,” Farris said.

Central Feature

The one-year repeal of the tax in 2010 was a central feature of the Bush tax cuts. It was repealed for only one year because a deal made in 2001 between Republicans and deficit-wary Democrats gradually reduced the tax through 2009 before it was repealed. The same bargain placed the Dec. 31, 2010, expiration date on all of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts with which Obama and Congress are now wrestling.

The repeal also was the pinnacle for business groups and anti-tax activist organizations such as the American Family Business Institute and Americans for Tax Reform.

In the past year trade groups such as the National Federation of Independent Business and the National Association of Manufacturers, alarmed by the possibility of a 55 percent rate in 2011, have pivoted toward urging lawmakers to adopt the approach favored by Kyl and Lincoln. Though Lincoln lost her bid for re-election on Nov. 2, she says she still backs the proposal to set a top rate of 35 percent after a $5 million exemption.

Separate Laws

The business groups have been frustrated with a sequence of three separate estate-tax laws starting in 2009, when the first $3.5 million of an individual’s estate passed to heirs tax-free before a 45 percent rate kicked in. The Congressional Research Service says using those parameters in 2011 would subject 0.25 percent of U.S. estates to any tax in 2011 and generate $18.1 billion in revenue.

By contrast, a 55 percent top rate, with a $1 million exclusion, would affect 1.76 percent of estates and generate $34.4 billion in revenue, the CRS said. That’s enough to fund the departments of Labor and State. The Kyl-Lincoln approach would subject just 0.14 percent of estates to any tax and generate $11.2 billion, according to the CRS.

The anti-tax groups say they will continue to pressure lawmakers for repeal.

“What we would very much like to see is an extension of death taxes where they are right now, see an extension of the zero rate,” said Dick Patten, president of the group founded by Alabama lawyer Harold Apolinsky and funded heavily by investment banker Raymond Harbert, the son of a billionaire heiress.

The group refers to the levy as the “death tax,” even though 99 percent of U.S. residents don’t accrue a large enough fortune in their lifetime to pay it.

Most lawmakers likely will be wary of setting a tax-free allowance at $1 million, when it was $3.5 million only a year ago, said Jade West, a lobbyist for the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors. “It doesn’t take a lot to get to a million.”

--Editors: Jodi Schneider, Robin Meszoly

To contact the reporter on this story: Ryan J. Donmoyer in Washington at rdonmoyer@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

Treasuries Rise on Concern Irish Aid Won’t Contain Debt Crisis

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:33 AM PST

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By Cordell Eddings and Keith Jenkins

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, with 10-year notes up for a third day in a row, on concern the rescue for Ireland will fail to contain Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, increasing demand for the safety of U.S. government debt.

The Federal Reserve will buy Treasuries twice today as part of its plan to pump $600 billion into the economy through June and keep yields low. Bonds fell earlier as euro-region governments agreed to an 85 billion euro ($113 billion) aid package for Ireland.

“You have the package for Ireland, but the initial happiness has quickly subsided, and we are seeing worries about what is next for Europe,” said Jason Rogan, director of U.S. government trading at Guggenheim Partners LLC, a New York-based brokerage for institutional investors. “You have to look to buy the market, especially with the nervousness from Europe and the Fed buybacks coming.”

The 10-year note yield fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.83 percent at 8:27 a.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.625 percent security maturing in November 2020 rose 10/32, or $3.13 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 7/32. Ten-year yields are up 23 basis points this month, while down 101 basis points this year.

Bond Yields

The 30-year bond yield decreased two basis point to 4.19 percent. The two-year note yield was little changed at 0.51 percent after rising two basis points earlier today.

European finance chiefs ended crisis talks in Brussels yesterday by endorsing a Franco-German compromise on post-2013 rescues that means investors won’t automatically take losses to share the cost with taxpayers as German Chancellor Angela Merkel initially proposed.

“Given the uncertain landscape with Europe and the Korean peninsula and the upcoming Fed purchases in the U.S., there should be an underlying bid in the market, and that is what we are seeing,” said Martin Mitchell, head government bond trader at the Baltimore unit of Stifel Nicolaus & Co., a St. Louis- based brokerage firm.

The Fed is scheduled today to buy $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion of Treasuries due from February 2021 to November 2027 and $6 billion to $8 billion in government debt maturing from May 2013 to November 2014.

Fed Focus

The central bank plans to focus about 86 percent of its purchases on notes due in 2.5 years to 10 years, leaving the 30- year bond as the security that most closely reflects market expectations for inflation. Since the Fed’s Nov. 3 announcement, the 30-year yield rose 0.28 percentage point, suggesting growing investor confidence in the central bank’s efforts to avoid deflation as the economy expands.

“The 30-year, with minimal Fed involvement, will become the bellwether issue for the bond market’s outlook on the economy and inflation,” said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York.

Treasuries have handed investors a 1.1 percent loss in November, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. The decline would be the biggest since the debt lost 2.6 percent in December 2009. Treasuries have returned 7.4 percent this year, the indexes show.

Recovery Speed

The speed of the U.S. recovery is surprising, said Zeal Yin, who invests in dollar-denominated debt at Shin Kong Life Insurance Co., Taiwan’s second-largest life insurer.

“It will be difficult for Treasuries to rally,” said Yin, who helps oversee the equivalent of $49.2 billion. “The U.S. economy is recovering.” Ten-year yields will rise to 3 percent by June 30, he said.

The average U.S. shopper spent 6.4 percent more over the Thanksgiving weekend than a year earlier, the National Retail Federation reported yesterday, as the Christmas retail sales season began.

The 10-year note yield will advance to 3.24 percent by the end of 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities firms, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings.

Fund managers in a weekly survey by Ried Thunberg ICAP Inc. became less bearish on the outlook for Treasuries through June, with the research company citing the Korean tensions and Europe’s fiscal crisis.

Ried’s sentiment index rose to 45 for the seven days ended Nov. 24, matching this year’s high, from 43 the week before. A figure less than 50 indicates investors expect prices to fall.

The company, which is a unit of the world’s largest interdealer broker and is based in Jersey City, New Jersey, surveyed 22 money managers controlling $1.37 trillion.

--With assistance from James G. Neuger and Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels and Daniel Kruger in New York. Editors: Paul Cox, Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporters on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net; Cordell Eddings in New York at ceddings@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net.

U.K. Trims Growth Forecasts, Sees Deficit Little Changed

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:25 AM PST

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By Gonzalo Vina

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The British economy faces a “sluggish” recovery in the medium term and will grow more slowly over the next two years than previously forecast, the Treasury’s fiscal watchdog said.

The Office for Budget Responsibility cut its 2011 growth forecast to 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent and said the economy will expand 2.6 percent in 2012 instead of 2.8 percent.

The budget deficit will be 117 billion pounds ($182 billion) in the year through March 2012, compared with a previous forecast of 116 billion pounds. The budget office added 1 billion pounds to its forecast for the four years starting April 2011.

“The economy will continue to recover from recession, but at a slower pace than in the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s,” the budget office said in a statement. The “outlook reflects the gradual normalization of credit conditions, efforts to reduce private-sector indebtedness and the impact of the government’s fiscal consolidation.”

Prime Minister David Cameron is facing growing public pressure over his plans to slash the record deficit, expected by the OBR to be 10 percent of economic output this year. The opposition Labour Party has called for the government to moderate the pace of tightening, saying the economy is too fragile to take it.

The OBR, led by Chairman Robert Chote, raised its 2010 economic growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.2 percent. The deficit for the current fiscal year will be little changed at 148.5 billion pounds, it said.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has said he is sticking to his spending cuts and rejected International Monetary Fund calls to scale back the tightening should the U.K. economy slide back into recession.

The OBR was set up by Osborne to oversee Treasury forecasts and judge the government against its goal of achieving structural budget balance in the year ending April 2016.

The OBR said there is more than a 50 percent chance of meeting the forecast on existing tax and spending plans, with the current budget forecast to show a surplus of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2014-15 and net debt falling.

The OBR said 330,000 jobs will be axed by April 2015 instead of the 490,000 it forecast in June. The revisions largely reflect the impact of Cameron’s decision last month to find an extra 7 billion pounds in welfare cuts and allocate the money to departments.

Osborne will later today deliver a statement to Parliament on the forecasts.

Labour introduced the Pre-Budget Report in 1997 to consult on changes for the following year. The occasion became popularly known as a “mini budget” as it took on greater significance during the financial crisis when Gordon Brown used it to introduce emergency measures including cutting value-added tax.

-- Editors: Andrew Atkinson

To contact the reporters on this story: Gonzalo Vina in London on gvina@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net

Basel Said to Seek Liquidity Deal, Weigh Bond Losses

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:23 AM PST

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By Jim Brunsden

(Updates with bank group’s comment in seventh paragraph.)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Global banking regulators will seek agreements on liquidity and the quality of capital to fill gaps in an overhaul of rules endorsed by world leaders, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Regulators may fail to agree on all the details at a two- day meeting of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision starting tomorrow, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. That’s because of their potentially large effect on national banking industries, one of the people said.

The Basel committee will also discuss how bondholders may contribute to the costs of saving banks on the verge of collapse and what should trigger such burden sharing, the people said.

The Group of 20 nations decided to bolster banks’ liquidity and capital to prevent a rerun of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. An exodus of deposits from Irish lenders caused a funding shortfall which led European governments and the International Monetary Fund yesterday to agree on an 85 billion-euro ($112 billion) aid package for the country.

The G-20 this month endorsed rules, known as Basel III, which will more than triple the highest-quality capital, such as shareholders’ equity, that banks must hold to cushion against losses. The leaders left it to regulators to complete the details of the new rules. The G-20 has called on the committee to agree on them before the end of this year.

‘Balanced Decisions’

The Basel committee should “come to balanced decisions” on banks’ liquidity and capital that “do not risk hampering their lending capacity,” the European Banking Federation said in an e-mailed statement.

Regulators should avoid a “one-size-fits-all approach” to setting standards for bank liquidity so “firms are not obliged to change their business models fundamentally,” said Irving Henry, director of the British Bankers’ Association, in a telephone interview.

The Basel group is evaluating measures which would require bondholders to contribute to support for banks in times of stress. These include the use of so-called contingent convertible bonds, which convert to equity if certain triggers, such as preset capital levels, are breached, and bonds which automatically lose value if certain conditions are met. The Basel committee has said it plans to complete this work by mid- 2011.

A Swiss government-appointed panel recommended last month that UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG should hold as much as 9 percent of their risk-weighted capital in contingent convertible bonds by 2019.

‘Subordinated Debt’

The Basel committee suggested in August that regulators should have the option of writing off the subordinated debt and preferential shares of a bank that is about to fail, or of converting such instruments into common shares. The meeting will discuss the next steps to take, the people said.

The Basel meeting will also discuss criteria to identify banks that are deemed to be too big to fail. Regulators are aiming to complete work on “provisional” criteria to assess “the systemic importance of financial institutions at the global level,” by the end of this year, the committee said last month.

--Editors: Peter Chapman, James Amott

To contact the reporters on this story: Jim Brunsden in Brussels at jbrunsden@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anthony Aarons at aaarons@bloomberg.net.

Coty Said to Be Close to Buying Nail-Polish Maker OPI

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:23 AM PST

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By Jeffrey McCracken and Serena Saitto

(Updates to add advisers in fifth paragraph.)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Coty Inc., the seller of perfumes by Sarah Jessica Parker and Vera Wang, is close to buying nail-care company OPI Products Inc. for about $1 billion in cash, said two people with knowledge of the situation.

The two closely held companies may announce the deal by today, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Private-equity firms Bain Capital LLC and Advent International Corp. were among the companies that also made bids, people close to the situation said last month.

OPI, founded almost three decades ago by Chief Executive Officer George Schaeffer, sells polish used in nail salons, hand-and-foot care products and body lotion. Coty has bolstered its cosmetics business with acquisitions this month, agreeing to buy skin-care maker Philosophy and Dr. Scheller Cosmetics AG.

Cysette Burset, a spokeswoman for New York-based Coty, wasn’t reachable for comment, nor was Harris Shepard, a representative for OPI, which is based in North Hollywood, California.

Moelis & Co. served as financial adviser to Coty, while Lazard Ltd. advised OPI. Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP provided legal counsel to Coty and Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom did the same for OPI.

Coty agreed to buy Philosophy on Nov. 23 from private- equity firm Carlyle Group, without disclosing the terms. Less than two weeks before that, Coty said it agreed to buy Dr. Scheller Cosmetics AG from Russia’s OAO Concern Kalina. It also purchased Unilever Cosmetics International in 2005 for 632.6 million euros ($860.6 million).

Financial Performance

OPI has annual sales of about $300 million and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of about $80 million, the people said last month. The company is seeking 11 to 12 times its earnings for the sale, they said.

Coty distributes perfumes such as “Lovely” from Parker, star of “Sex and the City,” and “Princess” from designer Wang.

A purchase of OPI would be at least the second acquisition of a nail-care company this year. In April, L’Oreal SA agreed to buy Essie Cosmetics to expand in the nail color market in the U.S. Terms weren’t disclosed.

--Editors: Andrew Dunn, Julie Alnwick

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeffrey McCracken in New York at jmccracken3@bloomberg.net; Serena Saitto in New York at ssaitto@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jennifer Sondag at jsondag@bloomberg.net

Iran Scientist Killed by Bomb Worked on Atomic Project

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:11 AM PST

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By Ladane Nasseri

(Updates with Iran minister accusing U.S., Israel in fifth, sixth paragraphs.)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- A physicist working on Iran’s nuclear program was killed in a bombing in Tehran and another scientist was injured in a second blast, authorities said.

Majid Shahriari died early today as he was heading to his teaching job at Shahid Beheshti University, state-run news agencies including Mehr reported. Fereydoun Abasi, a physicist at the same university, was injured along with his wife, Mehr said. The bombs were attached to their cars by magnets, Hossein Sajedinia, Tehran’s police chief, was cited as saying by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

“Majid Shahriari was one of my students for years and had a good cooperation with the organization,” Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, told IRNA. “He was involved in one of the great projects of the organization.”

Iran is under international pressure over its nuclear program, which the U.S. and allies say is a cover for building atomic weapons. Iran rejects the allegation and says it needs nuclear technology for civilian purposes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this month that Iran should know that “all options are on the table” to halt the program.

Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar accused the U.S. and Israeli intelligence services of being behind the attack on Shahriari. The Iranian physicist’s killing follows a similar attack January that Iran also blamed on the U.S. and Israel.

“The CIA and Mossad are enemies of the Iranian nation and always sought to harm it as they want to prevent our scientific progress,” Mohammad-Najjar said, according to state television. “The enemy is resorting to such actions because it didn’t succeed by threatening and imposing sanctions on Iran.”

Salehi, who visited Abasi at a hospital, warned Iran’s enemies not to “play with fire” and said that “the patience of Iranian people is limited,” according to IRNA.

The January attack targeted Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, who was killed by a remote-controlled bomb planted outside his home in Tehran.

--Editors: Ben Holland, Eddie Buckle, Heather Langan.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ladane Nasseri in Tehran at lnasseri@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Maher Chmaytelli at mchmaytelli@bloomberg.net.

Hungary Unexpectedly Raises Rates on Budget, Prices

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:09 AM PST

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By Zoltan Simon

(Adds analyst comment in fourth and seventh paragraphs.)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate after holding it at a record low for six months as concern that country risk is rising and inflation is accelerating outweighed potential harm to growth.

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank in Budapest raised the benchmark two-week deposit rate to 5.5 percent from a record-low 5.25 percent, matching the forecast of two analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Sixteen predicted no change. Central Bank President Andras Simor will explain the decision at 3 p.m., when the bank’s inflation and growth forecasts will be published.

Hungarian stocks, bonds and the currency tumbled last week after the government moved to funnel private pension-fund accounts to the budget to help reduce a shortfall. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is also relying on special industry taxes to meet budget goals, which the central bank forecasts will boost inflation. A reliance on short-term measures may threaten budget sustainability, Fitch Ratings said.

“The government has essentially forced the central bank into this rate increase,” Gabor Ambrus, analyst at 4Cast Ltd. said by the phone. The special taxes levied by the Cabinet may lead to “a multiyear inflation shock” and a plan to boost domestic spending with a cut in the personal income tax may also boost prices, he said.

Forint, Stocks Fall

The forint has weakened 3.3 percent this month, the worst performance among more than 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and traded at 280.59 per euro at 2:42 p.m. in Budapest from 280.11 on Nov. 26. The country’s benchmark BUX stock index fell 2.1 percent to its lowest since June 7.

Hungary’s risk assessment worsened last week after the government told citizens they will lose their state pensions unless they transfer their private pension-fund accounts to the state. The country’s five-year credit default swap, measuring the cost to protect against default, soared to 372.62 at 12:55 p.m. today, the highest in 11 weeks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose to 8.18 percent, the highest in the past year.

“Investors’ risks perception of Hungary has deteriorated very significantly recently, partly due to country-specific reasons,” Ambrus said. “The central bank simply had no other option.”

Inflation Accelerates

Industry taxes the government is levying to reduce the budget shortfall to less than 3 percent of output next year will raise the inflation rate by 0.3 percentage points next year, the central bank said on Nov. 11. The inflation rate has been rising for two months to 4.2 percent in October, the highest level since June.

Fitch Ratings may cut Hungary’s credit grade by the end of this year because the government’s plan to funnel private pension funds to the state may have a “negative impact” on fiscal sustainability, David Heslam, a London-based director at Fitch in, said in a Nov. 26 phone interview.

Most analysts in a Bloomberg survey predicted the bank would keep the key interest rate unchanged because of the economy’s “fragile” recovery from its worst recession in 18 years and as unemployment remains near a record high. The Cabinet is probably overestimating the effects of personal income-tax cuts on growth next year, Citigroup Inc. said.

“Given the fragile economic recovery and uncertain growth outlook, it seems too early to start the monetary tightening,” Piotr Kalisz, a Warsaw-based economist for Citigroup, said in a research note before the rate decision. “We expect interest rates to remain on hold until the third quarter of 2011.”

--With assistance from Edith Balazs in Budapest. Editors: Balazs Penz, Willy Morris.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoltan Simon in Budapest at zsimon@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Willy Morris at wmorris@bloomberg.net

Greece Wins EU Pledge for Extension to Repay Bailout

Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:08 AM PST

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By Jonathan Stearns

(Updates with Greek stocks in sixth paragraph.)

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Greece is set to get an extra four- and-a-half years to repay emergency loans to match the seven- year term for the rescue Ireland received yesterday. Greek bonds and stocks gained.

Greece in May got a three-year aid package of 110 billion euros ($146 billion) from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund to prevent a debt default. Ireland yesterday won an 85 billion-euro package for seven-and-a-half years at a meeting where European finance ministers said they would “rapidly examine the necessity of aligning the maturities of the financing for Greece to that of Ireland.”

“This should now kill off any remaining doubt over Greece’s ability to repay aid,” European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said after the meeting in Brussels. He said the step, which will be preceded by talks with the Greek government, would be “very important” in helping to ensure the “debt sustainability” of Greece.

Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government may be unable to respect the original timeframe for repaying quarterly aid installments as tax revenue slumps in an economy forecast to contract 4.2 percent this year and 3 percent in 2011. Higher EU estimates for Greece’s 2009 debt and deficit in mid-November forced the government to announce extra austerity measures to reach targets set as a condition for receiving the funds.

Budget Deficit

Greece’s budget deficit last year was 15.4 percent of gross domestic product, a record for the euro area, according to the EU statistics office. The gap will be 9.4 percent of GDP this year -- above an original 8.1 percent goal agreed to in May -- and 7.4 percent next year, according to the Greek government.

Greek bonds rose today, sending the 10-year yield down 13 basis points to 11.78 percent. Greek stocks advanced for the first time in seven sessions, led by banks including EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA and National Bank of Greece SA.

Greece’s first aid repayment is due in 2013. The country’s gross borrowing needs will rise to 70.8 billion euros in 2014 from 53.2 billion euros in 2013 on repayments to EU states and the IMF, IMF documents show.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in October that he would be ready to give Greece more time to pay back its aid from the Washington-based lender, which provided 30 billion euros of the Greek bailout, if European nations decide to do so first.

The government of German Chancellor Angela Merkel reacted the same month by saying it was “not in favor of extending the repayments schedule” for Greece and any such move would be “premature.”

--With assistance from James G. Neuger and Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels and Maria Petrakis in Athens. Editors: James Hertling, Jones Hayden

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Stearns in Brussels at jstearns2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net